The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world1–3 . However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming4–8 will aect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins9–11. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century.

The Project aims to enhance Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in the Pacific SIDS (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu) , thereby contributing to building greater resilience to hydrometeorological hazards in the region. The proposed scope of the hazards for which EWSs will be created or enhanced is severe weather – including tropical cyclones, floods, drought and sea predictions. The warnings will be issued and acted upon hours, days, weeks and - in the case of drought - months ahead of the hazard occurring.

The Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP) is implementing the Climate Information Services for Resilient Development in Vanuatu (CISRD), or Vanuatu Klaemet Infomesen blong redy, adapt mo protekt (Van-KIRAP) Project.

The Forty-Seventh Pacific Islands Forum was held in Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia from 8 – 10 September 2016 and was attended by Heads of State and Government of Australia, the Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Nauru, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. The Solomon Islands was represented by their Deputy Prime Minister, the Republic of Fiji, Niue and the Republic of Palau by their Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Kiribati by a Special Envoy.

The WASH Media materials consists of the following audio and video files: