The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world1–3 . However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming4–8 will aect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins9–11. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century.

The Project aims to enhance Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in the Pacific SIDS (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu) , thereby contributing to building greater resilience to hydrometeorological hazards in the region. The proposed scope of the hazards for which EWSs will be created or enhanced is severe weather – including tropical cyclones, floods, drought and sea predictions. The warnings will be issued and acted upon hours, days, weeks and - in the case of drought - months ahead of the hazard occurring.

The Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP) is implementing the Climate Information Services for Resilient Development in Vanuatu (CISRD), or Vanuatu Klaemet Infomesen blong redy, adapt mo protekt (Van-KIRAP) Project.

Building on Vanuatu’s progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 7 (MDG7) target to reduce the number of people without access to safe drinking water by 2015, and progressive national planning towards the Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6), the Vanuatu National Sustainable Development Plan 2016 (NSDP) includes a policy objective (ECO2.2) “Ensure all people have reliable access to safe drinking water and sanitation infrastructure.”

National Water Policy Priorities
The Vanuatu National Water Policy (2017-2030) seeks to deliver the policy objectives established by the National Sustainable Development Plan (2016-2030) at:
- ECO 2.2 to ensure safe water services for all
- ENV 4.2 to protect community water sources
- ENV 4.7 to build community natural resource management capacity
- SOC 3.2 to reduce communicable diseases
- SOC 6.5 to strengthen local authorities to enable decentralised service delivery
- SOC 6.6 to strengthen physical planning to meets the need of a growing population