The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world1–3 . However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming4–8 will aect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins9–11. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century.

The Project aims to enhance Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in the Pacific SIDS (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu) , thereby contributing to building greater resilience to hydrometeorological hazards in the region. The proposed scope of the hazards for which EWSs will be created or enhanced is severe weather – including tropical cyclones, floods, drought and sea predictions. The warnings will be issued and acted upon hours, days, weeks and - in the case of drought - months ahead of the hazard occurring.

The Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP) is implementing the Climate Information Services for Resilient Development in Vanuatu (CISRD), or Vanuatu Klaemet Infomesen blong redy, adapt mo protekt (Van-KIRAP) Project.

Climate Change long Vanuatu
Vanuatu i stap experiencem ol rabis impak blong
climate change finis. Ol kaontri long Pacific nao oli
moa sensitive long ol envaeronmental problem mo tu
yumi no kat enuf risos blong dil wetem ol problem ia.
So far yumi lonfg Vanuatu yumi stap lukim ol impak
olsem sea leve rise, jenj long amaon mo taem blong
ren we i foldaon, damaj long ol strongfala cylcone ,
disis mo sik long ol animol mo plant, lak blong drinking
wota mo plante moa.
‘Coping with Climate Change in the Pacific Island

The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. This factsheet contains useful information about the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surges, etc.